Healthcare Inflation and Life Expectancy in Nigeria: The Moderating Role of GDP Growth

Abstract

This study investigated healthcare inflation and life expectancy in Nigeria focusing on the moderating role of GDP per capita growth within a macroeconomic framework. This study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique and covers from 1985 to 2023. The short-run dynamics reveal that life expectancy is highly persistent, with past values exerting a dominant influence on current outcomes. Healthcare inflation exerts a delayed but negative effect on life expectancy. The health expenditure improves life expectancy only after a lag. GDP per capita growth shows weak and inconsistent short-run effects. However, the moderating variable becomes significant in the lagged period. The long-run results confirm a stable equilibrium relationship between life expectancy and its determinants. In the long-run, healthcare inflation has a negative and statistically significant effect on the life expectancy while the moderating variable has a negative but statistically insignificant effect. The interaction variable and healthcare expenditure have positive and statistically significant effects on the life expectancy. Hence the significant of interaction variable in the long-run confirms that the GDP per capita growth serves as a strong moderator in the relationship. To strengthen life expectancy outcomes, government must curb healthcare inflation, expand public health investment, and ensure equitable income distribution.